Our audio experiment continues this week. If you want to subscribe in your podcast player, here’s the link.
Today in the email a checklist.
☑️ What is the story around what you're doing? For example, does a company in an industry have a net-positive (or negative) reputation that's irrelevant to the facts?
☑️ What is the latest consistent data? For example, sabermetrics changed baseball and driving feedback would change commutes.
☑️ What is the outside view? The base rate isn't the answer but it's the place to start. Take it with a grain of salt when it confirms your priors.
☑️ Beware of stories, the sweet-talk of information. The media serves stories, people feast on them, and none of it may be true.
☑️ Is this black and white or shades of grey? Getting to the core of any issue takes all this effort and yet it's still shade of grey. Dan Carlin studies history and said this:
"Any time I hear an argument that's black and white I can almost automatically assume that it's wrong. Sometimes reality is black and white but that happens so rarely. The majority of the time it's complex."
Make it a great weekend.
💩 Insiders, Outsiders, Newspapers